BRIC Market News & Research Digest
BRIC News Digest
The BRIC Country Reports
Starting with the original Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper No. 99. in 2003, in which the term BRICs was coined, this section digests the observations during the most recent 4 years of coverage.
Goldman Sachs
The BRICs Dream: An Audio Visual Tour (Flash Movie), Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs: Beyond the BRICs, November 2008
Global Economics Paper No: 99, Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050, Dominic Wilson, Roopa Purushothaman, 1st October 2003
Global Economics Paper No: 109, India: Realizing BRICs Potential, Roopa Purushothaman, 14th April 2004
Global Economics Paper No: 118, The BRICs and Global Markets: Crude, Cars and Capital14th October 2004
Global Economics Paper No: 133, China’s Ascent: Can the Middle Kingdom Meet Its Dreams?, Hong Liang, Eva Yi, 11th November 2005
Global Economics Paper No: 134, How Solid are the BRICs?, Jim O’Neill, Dominic Wilson, Roopa
Purushothaman and Anna Stupnytska, 1st December 2005
Global Economics Paper No: 141, GloCo-Motives:
Arguing the Case for Globalization,Jim O’Neill, Sandra Lawson, May 1, 2006
The BRICs’ Path to 2050: A Dramatically Different Global Economy, Roopa Purushothaman, Powerpoint Slides, October 28, 2005 - PDF version
Global Economics Paper No: 152, India’s Rising Growth Potential, Tushar Poddar, Eva Yi, January 22, 2007
Goldman Sachs Global Economics Weekly, Issue No. 07/06, February 14, 2007
Goldman Sachs: Beyond the BRICs, November 2007
Morgan Stanley
Research and numerous reports from Stephen Roach, Chief Global Strategist, Morgan Stanley.
Miscellaneous Banks and Economists
BRIC Markets: Investment Rationale, Risks and Access Options, Standard & Poors, June 2007, Srikant Dash, CFA, FRM ades. 12 Pages
Is India emerging as a global economic powerhouse equal to China?, Jouko Rautava, Bank of Finland, February 2005
China: Economic Survey, 2006/2007 From Shanghai to Sao Paolo, PriceWaterhouseCoopers, New Consumer Dynamics: The Impact on Modern Retailing
India: Economic Survey, 2006/2007 From Shanghai to Sao Paolo, New Consumer Dynamics: The Impact on Modern Retailing, PriceWaterhouseCoopers
Dancing with Giants, L. Alan Winters and Shahid Yusuf, The World Bank, Institute of Policy Studies
India: Linking into the global services economy, Deloitte Research, January 19, 2007
Complete Report on Retail and Consumer Goods Industries, 2006/2007 From Sao Paolo to Shanghai, 5th Edition, PriceWaterhouseCoopers, November 11, 2006
India Emerging in the Global Economy, Macro-Economy Proceedings - Tokyo Club Foundation for Global Studies, March 2007
From the NIEs to the BRICs: Development Theory Revisited, Edward K Y Chen, The University of Hong Kong, 15 June 2007
Investment Fundamentals - Why Invest in BRICs? 06/2007, State Street Global Advisors, SPDRs
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Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050
Dominic Wilson
Roopa Purushothaman
1st October 2003
Global Economics
Paper No: 99
Over the next 50 years, Brazil, Russia, India and China—the BRICs economies—could become a much larger force in the world economy. We map out GDP growth, income per capita and currency movements in the BRICs economies until 2050.
The results are startling. If things go right, in less than 40 years, the BRICs economies together could be larger than the G6 in US dollar terms. By 2025 they could account for over half the size of the G6. Of the current G6, only the US and Japan may be among the six largest economies in US dollar terms in 2050. The list of the world’s ten largest economies may look quite different in 2050. The largest economies in the world (by GDP)mayno longer be the richest (by income per capita), making strategic choices for firms more complex.
Global Economics Paper No: 109
India: Realizing BRICs Potential
Roopa Purushothaman
14th April 2004
A highlight of our October 2003 BRICs report was the remarkable—and
largely underappreciated—growth potential for India. India could be a
bigger growth story than China over the long run. Fundamental changes in the economy support India’s ability to meet our BRICs projections.
India’s services-led growth strategy, a departure from Asia’s traditional manufacturing-led model for growth, is benefiting from both domestic and global demand. Globally competitive firms are emerging from the country’s historically protected private sector, and broad-based reform is fostering infrastructure development and greater openness.
India lags the other BRICs in levels of openness, basic education and
infrastructure, meaning that it has work to do to make the BRICS projections
a reality. If the country can strengthen these conditions, India may well
realize its potential as the sleeper success story of the BRICs.
Global Economics Paper No: 118
GS GLOBAL ECONOMIC WEBSITE
Economic Research from the GS Institutional Portal
14th October 2004
The BRICs and Global Markets:
Crude, Cars and Capital
A year ago, we looked at how the world might change if the BRICs
economies continued to grow. We show here what our BRICs projections would mean for world growth and the emergence of a BRICs middle class.
We also look at what the BRICs dream could mean for three major markets: energy, autos and equity capitalisation. In each case, the BRICs could be a major source of growth within ten years and perhaps a dominant one in twenty. The appetite for energy and commodities is likely to stay strong with pressure peaking over the next decade. The BRICs could soon begin to be felt in areas—consumer durables
and capital markets—where they have been a smaller force.
Global Economics Paper No: 133
GS GLOBAL ECONOMIC WEBSITE
Hong Liang,
Eva Yi
11th November 2005
China’s Ascent: Can the Middle Kingdom Meet Its Dreams?
China’s growth performance in the last 27 years has been nothing but
extraordinary.
We show in this paper that a sharp and sustained increase in productivity has been the driving force behind China’s growth. In our view, this productivity growth is a unique form of “reform dividends”, originated from profound domestic reforms and opening up.
32 Pages
Goldman Sachs
Global Economics Paper No: 134
1st December 2005
Jim O’Neill, Dominic Wilson, Roopa
Purushothaman and Anna Stupnytska
How Solid are the BRICs?
Since we began writing on the BRICs, each country has grown more
strongly than our initial projections. Our updated forecasts suggest the
BRICs can realise the ‘dream’ more quickly than we thought in 2003.
24 Pages
Global Economics Paper No: 141
May 1, 2006
Jim O’Neill,
Sandra Lawson
and Sara Aronchick
GloCo-Motives:
Arguing the Case for Globalization
Three years ago, we introduced the concept of GloCo—the successful and
profitable global company of the future. We offered eight criteria for GloCo
and a list of firms that might meet our criteria. The companies we flagged as
potential GloCos have collectively outperformed their local equity indices over
the past decade. Meeting our eight criteria is necessary, but probably not sufficient, for the
challenging task of becoming GloCo. This is especially true as the opposition
to globalization builds strength.
The BRICs’ Path to 2050: A
Dramatically Different Global Economy
October 28, 2005
Roopa Purushothaman
Goldman Sachs - Powerpoint Slides - PDF version
43 Slides
Global Economics Paper No: 152
GS GLOBAL ECONOMIC WEBSITE
Tushar Poddar, Eva Yi
January 22, 2007
India’s Rising Growth Potential
India’s high growth rate since 2003 represents a structural increase
rather than simply a cyclical upturn. We project India’s potential or sustainable growth rate at about 8% until 2020. The recent growth spurt was achieved primarily through a surge in productivity, which we believe can be sustained. India is well-positioned to reap the benefits of favorable demographics, including an ‘urbanization bonus’, and a further rise in capital accumulation, in part from an upsurge in foreign direct investment. The risks to growth are: political risk, including a rise in protectionism; supply-side constraints, including business climate, education, and
labor market reforms; and environmental degradation.
Our assessment suggests that India’s influence on the world economy will be bigger and quicker than implied in our previously published BRICs research.36 pages
Goldman Sachs Global Economics Weekly
Issue No. 07/06
February 14, 2007
Natural advantages, such as time zone, geographic adjacency and language, suggest
that other markets will enjoy strong growth ahead. London, Hong Kong and Dubai are all close to large emerging economies with
growing pools of capital. Trends that have supported the growth of domestic capital
markets in countries like China including privatisations, rising household wealth, aging populations and improved corporate transparency and governanceare likely to
occur elsewhere as well.
12 Pages
Goldman Sachs: Beyond the BRICs, November 2008 - The most comprehensive update to Goldman Sachs' BRICs series, providing in depth insight into the progress of Brazil, Russia, India, China.
Standard & Poors, June 2007
BRIC Markets: Investment Rationale, Risks and Access Options
Srikant Dash, CFA, FRM
There are economic and investing rationales for considering dedicated allocations to Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC). The economic rationale is straightforward and centers on size and growth of these economies. A combination of large human capital, less mature economies and access to natural resources have contributed to estimates that predict BRICs eclipsing most developed economies in size and importance in a few decades. 12 Pages
Is India emerging as a global economic
powerhouse equal to China? *
Jouko Rautava, Bank of Finland, February 2005
India has frequently been referred to as the country with the largest economic growth potential in the world after China. Many commentators seem to think its role in the world
economy is already comparable to that of China. However, a closer look at merchandise
trade, market share developments, and foreign investment figures reveals that India is still far behind China as far as international influence is concerned. An interesting exception is services trade, where India already plays an important global role due to recent fast growth
of offshore outsourcing.
24 Pages
PriceWaterhouseCoopers
China: Economic Survey
2006/2007 From Shanghai to Sao Paolo
New Consumer Dynamics: The Impact on Modern Retailing
41 Pages
PriceWaterhouseCoopers
India: Economic Survey
2006/2007 From Shanghai to Sao Paolo
New Consumer Dynamics: The Impact on Modern Retailing
PriceWaterhouseCoopers
Brazil: Economic Survey
2006/2007 From Shanghai to Sao Paolo
New Consumer Dynamics: The Impact on Modern Retailing
PriceWaterhouseCoopers
Russia: Economic Survey
2006/2007 From Shanghai to Sao Paolo
New Consumer Dynamics: The Impact on Modern Retailing
Dancing with Giants
L. Alan Winters and Shahid Yusuf
The World Bank, Institute of Policy Studies
China and India share at least two characteristics: their populations are huge
and their economies have been growing very fast for at least 10 years. Already
they account for nearly 5 percent and 2 percent of world gross domestic product
(GDP), respectively, at current exchange rates. Arguably, China’s expansion
since 1978 already has been the largest growth “surprise” ever experienced
by the world economy; and if we extrapolated their recent growth rates
for half a century, we would find that China and India—the Giants—were
among the world’s very largest economies.
292 Pages
India: Linking into the global services economy
Deloitte Research, January 19, 2007
In just over a decade, India has grown into one of the world’s leading economies.
Out of an economic crisis that saw the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth reduced to just 1.1 percent in 1991, India now enjoys a current growth rate of 8 percent annually, making
it second only to China as the world’s fastest-growing economy. Today, the country, which had long been one of the richest nations on earth prior to the 1800s, is once again becoming a global economic powerhouse—the world’s fourth-largest economy after the United States, China, and Japan (as measured by GDP at purchasing power parity in 2005).
7 Pages
2006/2007 From Sao Paolo to Shanghai, 5th Edition
PriceWaterhouseCoopers, November 11, 2006
Complete Report on Retail and Consumer Goods Industries
*connected thinking 266 Pages
Macro-Economy Proceedings - Tokyo Club Foundation for Global Studies
India Emerging in the Global Economy
March 2007
INDIA’S GROWTH: PAST PERFORMANCE AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
Acharya reviews India’s economic growth performance from 1950 to the
present and outlines the economic challenges and prospects facing the country
in the medium term. He discusses the more open and outward-looking
economy; the growing middle class; the young population; the rise of strong
companies in a modernized capital market; recent reforms; and a supportive
international economic environment as structural factors to explain the surge in
India’s growth rate to 8 percent a year since 2002.
Looking ahead he finds that weaknesses in India’s fiscal situation, infrastructure,
labor market, agriculture sector, reform process, and human resource
development as well as changes in the international environment pose
constraints for the economy. Acharya concludes that expectations of 6.5 to 7
percent annual growth for India in the next five years are more justifiable than
the more bullish expectations of some analysts and of the Government’s
Planning Commission. He points out that even the more moderate scenario,
however, implies an annual rate of growth in GDP per capita that is about as
fast as India has ever experienced. 29 Pages
From the NIEs to the BRICs:
Development Theory Revisited
Edward K Y Chen
at The University of Hong Kong, 15 June 2007
26 Slides
State Street Global Advisors - SPDRs
Why Invest in BRICs? 06/2007 WHY INVEST IN BRICS?
Emerging markets investors often ask: if I already have exposure to the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries through a broad emerging markets fund, why would I make a separate allocation to BRIC?
7 Pages
Brazil
Russia
India
China